BankruptcyBet is the first prediction market for bankruptcy creditor recovery rates — letting creditors hedge their claims and investors trade the outcome of major Chapter 11 cases. Built by a 20-year bankruptcy attorney who has been in these courtrooms.
Spirit's counsel Marshall Huebner told SDNY Judge Lane cash will run out before April 30. A $500M federal loan — giving the government 90% equity — is under discussion, but Transportation Secretary Duffy called it "good money after bad." Court hearing: April 30. This is exactly why BankruptcyBet exists: unsecured recovery ranges from 0–2¢ (liquidation) to 15¢+ (bailout) depending on next week's hearing.
Creditors have always faced binary outcomes — now they can hedge. Investors can take positions on the most data-rich events in finance.
When a major Chapter 11 files, BankruptcyBet creates a contract market on the cents-on-dollar recovery for general unsecured creditors. Opening odds are set using PACER data, capital structure analysis, and historical comps.
Preference lawsuit filed? DIP approved? Buyer walks? Key events shift recovery expectations in real time — just as they shift the value of your claim. The market continuously prices the information.
A trade vendor owed $500K can sell recovery contracts to lock in a floor. A distressed debt fund can go long on a case they've diligenced. Both sides need each other — and both benefit from the market.
When the plan is confirmed and distributions begin, the contract settles on the court-confirmed recovery rate — sourced from PACER, the federal court system. Public, federal, and unambiguous.
Suppliers, vendors, and service providers holding unsecured claims can sell recovery contracts to establish a floor — transforming an uncertain receivable into a manageable risk position.
Investors who have diligenced a case can express a directional view on recovery with precision — long or short — without acquiring the underlying claim at a discount.
Lenders advancing against receivables in stressed industries can hedge the bankruptcy tail risk on their portfolio — matching the tool to the exposure.
When a distressed issuer files, bondholders face acute mark-to-market uncertainty. Recovery contracts let them hedge plan uncertainty while they decide whether to trade or hold through emergence.
All prices in cents on dollar of unsecured claim. BB$ = BankruptcyBet demo credits.
Before a company files Ch.11, private credit funds, factors, BDCs, and regional banks hold billions in exposure — with no instrument to hedge it. BankruptcyBet creates the first market for that risk.
CDS requires publicly traded debt, an ISDA master, and a Goldman-level counterparty. None of those exist for private companies. This is the gap.
"Will [Company X] file Ch.11 within 12 / 24 / 36 months?" — YES or NO. Resolves on PACER filing.
Private credit funds, factors, BDCs, regional banks, family offices, mezzanine lenders — all hold concentrated exposure, none can hedge it today.
A 42¢ contract means the market prices a 42% chance of filing within the window. If the company files, YES holders collect 100¢. If not, NO holders win.
BankruptcyBet was conceived by Roland Gary Jones — a bankruptcy attorney with over two decades of Chapter 11 practice across aviation, petrochemical, retail, automotive, beauty, and food and beverage sectors. Roland has handled hundreds of cases, negotiated with creditors' committees, and appeared before the judges whose dockets appear on this site.
His practice specializes in preference litigation under 11 U.S.C. § 547 and fraudulent conveyance defense under § 548 — the exact mechanisms that move the value of creditor recovery contracts. In one landmark case, Roland secured dismissal of a $1M+ preference complaint with no payment to the trustee. Across multiple cases, preference claims were settled at 3–5% of the complaint amount.
The founder's compliance architecture is built in: Roland operates BankruptcyBet through a separate entity from his law practice, with an ethics wall between client representations and any market-facing activities. Counsel to the platform will be entirely separate from Roland's litigation practice.
Visit rolandjones.com →The Third Circuit ruled that event contracts are "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act — confirming CFTC jurisdiction and validating the legal framework for prediction market operators.
BULLISH for sectorThe CFTC issued an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on event contract classification — signaling formal regulatory engagement with the sector. DCM applications have doubled in the past year.
BULLISH for sectorThe CFTC formally asserted that federal law preempts state regulation of event contract markets — removing the patchwork of state-level enforcement that had constrained smaller operators.
BULLISH for sectorBankruptcyBet is an operational demonstration platform. You can practice trading using BB$ (BankruptcyBet dollars) — play credits with no monetary value. No real money will be accepted until BankruptcyBet has obtained all required regulatory approvals and established a partnership with a registered Designated Contract Market (DCM).
DEMO ONLY · CFTC Approval PendingBe first to know when BankruptcyBet goes live. We'll notify you when trading opens, and creditors who pre-register will receive priority onboarding support.